n the Seattle Seahawks found themselves in reasonable third downs Ethan Pocic Color Rush Jersey , as opposed to third and long. There has been significant backlash towards the run game since the Seahawks dropped the Wild Card playoff game to the Dallas Cowboys, giving Russell Wilson his first ever postseason losing streak, having lost in the Divisional Round of the 2016 NFC Playoffs. In the comments to that article the idea of run-run was presented yet again as able to generate third and manageable, as one reader posted the following comment.Here’s the thing, though, running on both first and second down is more likely to lead to third and long than it is to lead to third and manageable. Wait, what? Well, I won’t bore you all with the math, but here’s a super simple table that breaks down the expected yards on a first down run (left side of the table) and the expected yards on a second down run (top of the table). In short, if a team calls a run play on first and second down, it will result in one of four things: 3rd & 7+3rd & 4-63rd & 1-3 ora First Down.The red area of the table is third and long. The yellow area is a third and medium. The blue part is third and short. And the green is a first down and the offense gets to start over. Obviously, those numbers in the table are really small, and the table formatter here is far from perfect, so here’s a summary of what the expected outcome will likely be based on these probabilities. 3rd & Long (7+): 24.88%3rd & Intermediate (4-6): 22.64%3rd & Short (1-3): 18.28%First Down Attained: 34.20%Basically, the most common outcome of a first down run followed by a second down run is gaining a first down. However, the second most probably outcome is third and long. Third and long is actually more likely to happen than third and intermediate or third and short, amd that's before even taking penalties into consideration.Now, this is simply a single piece of the puzzle Shaquill Griffin Color Rush Jersey , so throughout the offseason I'll be adding to the discussion through similar posts. Thus, by the time Training Camp opens in six months we should have the entire book of probability out there, which would allow someone to build a model based on the combination of all the various probability trees that are available. As the Seattle Seahawks have roared into relevance this season, the pundits have continually dubbed the Hawks a run-first team. There is no doubt that the Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing yards and are tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the most rushing attempts in the NFL. However, as we approach the end of the season, some in the national media are once again turning their attention to the importance of the run game and arguing the running game is once again why certain teams are successful. Now, it would be easy for me to point out that of those four teams, the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots have run the most offensive plays in the NFL, meaning that we’d expect those two teams to be near the top of the league in rushing attempts based solely on that fact. However, let’s look a little deeper and see exactly when those four teams are accumulating their rushing attempts. Here are the breakdowns for rushing attempts and run/pass percentage in the first half and second half for these four teams. First half rushing attemptsTeam1st Half Rush Attempts1st Half Pass Attempts1st Half Run:PassTeam1st Half Rush Attempts1st Half Pass Attempts1st Half Run:PassAnd then for the second half. Second half rushing attemptsTeam2nd Half Rush Attempts2nd Half Pass Attempts2nd Half Run:PassTeam2nd Half Rush Attempts2nd Half Pass Attempts2nd Half Run:PassAnd then just for fun, here’s a look at the yards per carry for each of these four teams for the first half and the second half. Yards per carry by halfTeam1st Half Yards Per Carry2nd Half Yards Per CarryOverall YPCTeam1st Half Yards Per Carry2nd Half Yards Per CarryOverall YPCSo, based on this extremely small sample, it would appear that three of these four teams are worse at running the ball in the second half and overtime compared to the first half. Interestingly, this would seem to be a point of evidence against the actual establishment of the run, but based on a sample this small obviously nothing would be definitive. In any case, back to the point of the article, the question is whether the Seahawks are a run first team. As noted, they obviously run the ball more often than any other team in the league. However Delano Hill Color Rush Jersey , does that alone make them a run first team? As we’ve seen through the season, the Seahawks offense appears to make the choice to run or pass based on a pre-snap read of the defense, and that happens to have led to them having thrown the ball less than they have run it. In short, they pass when the defense gives look A, otherwise they then default to a run play. The reads obviously vary by opponent and by style of defense the opponent plays, but at the end of the day, the offense is taking what the defense is giving it. And for the most part defenses have chosen to allow the Seahawks to run, because as much as Chris Carson has emerged as a threat to steamroll the Hawks offense down the field one piece of real estate at a time, allowing Seattle to do that is a lot less dangerous than giving Russell Wilson the one on one look he wants deep to either Tyler Lockett or Doug Baldwin. So, while the revamped Seahawks run game has produced 13 touchdowns for the team in 2018, the passing game has generated 14 explosive plays for touchdowns (16 or more yards, per Pete Carroll’s definition) and then has produced a further 20 touchdowns on non-explosive plays. Thus, while it can certainly be argued that the Hawks are a run first team, at the end of the day they are a team that runs as well as they can as they wait for the look they want from the defense. And the instant they get the look they want from the defense, then all bets are off because there’s a very good chance we’re about to witness a big play.