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I’m sure Tuesday’s Week 10 Pundit Power Ranking

von panxing18 | 391 Beiträge

s were a disappointment to many Arrowhead Pride readers.It just didn’t seem fair that the Kansas City Chiefs would fall to fourth place after a 37-21 victory — even if it was against the Cleveland Browns — considering that the Chiefs have played a more difficult schedule than the other teams at the top Kansas City Chiefs Jerseys 2019 , and their single loss was by a field goal against one of the best teams in the league.Well, what can I tell you?That’s the way it is with pundits.They’re human and have their own built-in prejudices.Sometimes their practiced eyes and long memories — which usually serve them very well — need a dose of hard reality.That’s the whole purpose of our True Power Rankings model — to mix in that dose of reality.And you’re going to like what it tells you this week.As usual, we’ll start with how the number-crunchers see the NFL in Week 10:Cruncher Power Rankings for Week 10Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC TeamsIn the view of the crunchers, the Chiefs are right where they were in Week 9 — still ranked first in all of the data models except PE.Normally, I’d give some analysis of the movement within the cruncher rankings, but this week, let’s dispense with that.There’s not a lot to discuss — and besides, I’ve already teased you enough.Let’s get right to the meat of this thing, and show you what happens when we average these cruncher power rankings with the pundit rankings from Tuesday.True Power Rankings for Week 10Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC TeamsThe Chiefs are at the top of the heap — not just in the AFC, but in the whole NFL — for the very reasons you probably thought it was wrong for them to be fourth in the eyes of the pundits: because they’ve played a stronger schedule, and their single loss doesn’t count against them as much as the losses the other teams have had.But as your eyes travel across the table, you may have noticed that something seems... wrong.Shouldn’t the New Orleans Saints be ranked first, with their number one ranking with the pundits, and their number three ranking with the crunchers?No... they shouldn’t.As we explained when we introduced this series at the beginning of the season — you can brush up with the True Power Rankings Methodology — we’re not averaging the ranks themselves Juan Thornhill black jersey , but rather the numbers behind those rankings.To illustrate, I’ll show you the top four teams again — but this time, with the ranking points from this week instead of the rankings.The math works out.The Chiefs are first because they should be.But while we’re here, let’s go back to a comment I referenced in Tuesday’s Week 10 Pundit Power Rankings.I pointed out that Frank Schwab of Yahoo! Sports had characterized the situation correctly: that the Chiefs, Rams and Saints — but not the Patriots — all had a legitimate argument to be ranked number one.This table reveals that Schwab was right; once we factor in the cruncher data, the margin between these teams is indeed very small. As it turns out, he also picked the right argument to believe — he was the only pundit in our model to rank the Chiefs first this week!But let’s not get carried away.Schwab’s opinion — as right as it was this week — might be wrong next week.As always, we’ll close with your weekly reality-check. Let’s take a look at the Week 10 cruncher grades:Cruncher Grades for Week 10Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC TeamsOnce again — without the bias induced by rankings, which tell us only that one value is greater than another, but not by how much — we see that the teams at the top (and bottom) are bunched together pretty closely.The best (and worst) teams in the league are pretty easy to identify.All of the teams in the NFL have played at least half of their games for the season, so the data models are giving us better results than they did early in the year, and the pundits are beginning to see the individual trees in the forest. We’re starting to get a pretty clear idea of what’s going on.When I was running my test of the True Power Rankings model in 2017, it was right around this point of the season that I started to see how well it could work. Crowdsourcing the opinions of the pundits — and then factoring in results from multiple data models with different strengths and weaknesses — really did give a clearer picture of what was happening than any individual pundit or model could hope to do.I hope that you’re starting to see that, too. As Andy Reid might say Juan Thornhill Jersey Mens , the fact that the model now shows the Chiefs at the top of the NFL is just icing on the cake.So let’s enjoy the Week 10 games.On Tuesday, we’ll fire up the spreadsheet, and see how it all works out. This is part one of a three-part weekly film analysis on the performance of Patrick Mahomes.What do you say to appropriately describe the emotions surrounding something you’ve anticipated your entire life? I’ve re-written the lede a few times already. It’s hard to accurately describe what the Chiefs victory over the Colts in the divisional round meant to me and what I think it meant for this city.The parallels to previous pain were obvious. It was nearly the All-Punt Game for the Colts in the first half. All but one possession in the game’s first 30 minutes resulted in work for the Colts’ Rigoberto Sanchez. The one possession that didn’t had its own poetic justice. Adam Vinatieri, the NFL’s all-time leading scorer, missed a point-blank field goal. You’re off the hook, Lin Elliott. As someone who drove back in the snow after “38-10,” it seemed fitting the Chiefs returned the favor to those driving back to the Hoosier State on Saturday.Sure, there is plenty to analyze from Patrick Mahomes’ first performance in the playoffs. We’re certainly going to talk about the positive and negative this week, but that’s not what matters. What does matter is that the Chiefs are still playing, and the young quarterback gets yet another opportunity and a chance to lead Kansas City and all their fans to a well deserved and overdue Super Bowl appearance.Something goodYou would have no clue it was Mahomes’ first playoff game on the first drive.Mahomes’ first play of his postseason was a slant-flat RPO. He’s reading linebacker Anthony Walker who takes just a few steps with the flow of the run play, but it’s enough for Mahomes to elect to throw the slant to Tyreek Hill. These plays are so dangerous with Hill as we saw on Mahomes’ first career touchdown against the Chargers. There’s potential for him to outrun the defense. Great start to the drive.The next pass play, the Colts run a basic cover 2 defense with five underneath zones and two deep safeties splitting the field in half. With Travis Kelce and Demetrius Harris lined up in the boundary, the Chiefs run a flat-option with Harris occupying the flight and Kelce reading the leverage of the underneath coverage and find space. Mahomes is on-time and on the same page as Kelce who catches the ball on an out break and gets yards after the catch to the 46 yard line.The next play, the Chiefs motion into an empty formation and the corner bounces out with Damien Williams. There’s a zone coverage ID for Mahomes. Also Bashaud Breeland Jersey , do we really think the Colts would be dumb enough to line up Jabaal Sheard and Anthony Walker on Tyreek Hill? No. Mahomes quickly realizes this is likely Tampa 2, and the way he executes this play shows that. His eyes are to the field on the snap of the ball. As Walker, the Tampa linebacker, carries Hill on the vertical, Mahomes knows he’s coming back to Watkins and Kelce. They’re running a dig-choice concept. Kelce is on a short-option route where he’s breaking based on leverage of the defender. Watkins runs a seam stem into a dig route behind Kelce occupying Darius Leonard. Mahomes helps maintains space with his eyes and comes back to Watkins and delivers a ball with anticipation to Watkins. The ball is perfectly placed, giving Watkins the opportunity to run after the catch for a gain of 34 yards. Outstanding execution on a drive that ultimately ended in a touchdown run for Damien Williams.Something badIt wasn’t all perfect for Mahomes. He did miss a touchdown to start the second quarter.The Colts are again in a Tampa 2 defense. Hill clears the Tampa linebacker and runs up the middle of the field between the safeties. There’s space for him to work with. He just misses. The ball is behind and short of Hill. It was a prime opportunity wasted by an uncharacteristically errant throw. This is likely is just one where the weather go to him. The trajectory is too bizarre.Quarterback anecdoteEvery week, I add a quick note about something I’ve picked up about the quarterback position through my time learning and playing the game.Because there’s so much to prepare for, you may only get a few opportunities in practice to prove that a new play design is worth calling in a game. Whether it’s a special play or just a new install specific for the week, coaches want to see it executed well in practice or they’ll dismiss the idea and move on. If you like the call, you better make sure you can show it’ll work.

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